| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | L | Kansas | 7-31 | 1591.5 | -95.5 | 1496.0 | 32.4% |
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Georgia Southern | 42-14 | 1496.0 | +87.2 | 1583.2 | 40.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Oregon State | 36-27 | 1583.2 | +13.6 | 1596.8 | 61.7% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Southern | 56-7 | 1596.8 | +36.5 | 1633.3 | 97.7% |
| 5 | Sep 21 2025 | W | Hawai'i | 23-21 | 1633.3 | -8.0 | 1625.3 | 74.8% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Nevada | 20-17 | 1623.0 | -33.5 | 1589.5 | 81.6% |
| 8 | Oct 10 2025 | L | Colorado State | 21-49 | 1589.5 | -79.2 | 1510.3 | 74.1% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | L | San Diego State | 0-23 | 1516.8 | -44.4 | 1472.4 | 30.4% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Boise State | 30-7 | 1472.4 | +81.8 | 1554.2 | 13.1% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Wyoming | 24-3 | 1540.3 | +38.6 | 1578.9 | 53.0% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | Utah State | 17-28 | 1578.9 | -28.4 | 1550.5 | 51.4% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | San José State | 41-14 | 1550.5 | +30.6 | 1581.1 | 70.1% |
| 19 | Dec 27 2025 | W | Miami (OH) | 18-3 | 1577.4 | +23.4 | 1600.8 | 53.1% |