| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | USC | 0-39 | 1604.9 | -109.0 | 1496.0 | 19.6% |
| 2 | Sep 13 2026 | W | Sacramento State | 49-3 | 1496.0 | +124.1 | 1620.1 | 60.5% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | W | San José State | 26-10 | 1620.1 | -18.9 | 1601.2 | 75.1% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | W | Rice | 38-24 | 1601.2 | -29.3 | 1571.9 | 83.0% |
| 5 | Oct 4 2026 | W | Washington State | 26-6 | 1571.9 | +40.3 | 1612.2 | 49.5% |
| 6 | Oct 11 2026 | L | Boise State | 31-38 | 1612.2 | -16.7 | 1595.5 | 30.1% |